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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-10-24 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia has been weakening rapidly while moving farther inland over the rugged terrain of western Mexico. Although the circulation is still intact, the associated convection has lost a significant amount of organization. Based on the degraded appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. Patricia is moving quickly north-northeastward at about 18 kt embedded in the flow between a trough over northwestern Mexico and an anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion is expected to continue until Patricia dissipates over the mountains of Mexico by tonight. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this system is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next couple of days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. The wind radii in the southeastern quadrant has been expanded outward significantly based on recent ASCAT passes, which indicated that tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring in a convective band near the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening quickly, strong and damaging winds at higher elevations could persist through this morning. 2. Continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 22.3N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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