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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140246 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt (which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt. Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass through the eye was 976 mb. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times. Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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