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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-09-15 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151437 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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