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Hurricane RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 31
2013-10-27 15:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 271433 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013 SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAYMOND HAS A CLOSED AND WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS MOSTLY BEEN OBSCURING THAT FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY. STILL... SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T4.5/77 KT AND T4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES ARE 82 KT AND 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. SINCE RAYMOND WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT ONLY 18 HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS STRENGTHENING TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...BUT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHILE RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER WATERS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND BUT THEN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. RAYMOND IS STILL LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THAT FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9 KT...BUT RAYMOND SHOULD BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER. ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING REGIME. THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW AGREES WITH THE EARLIER 00Z ECMWF RUN IN SHOWING RAYMOND MAKING MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT RAYMOND IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE A LITTLE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 14.9N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 16.0N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 17.9N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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