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Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-10-23 17:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231530 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and structure information. Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction. As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next 24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours, increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend to end or even result in some weakening. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast. 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST 60H 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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