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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-27 10:40:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 748 WTPZ45 KNHC 270839 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 The cloud pattern is a little more impressive with plenty of deep convection and a well-defined cyclonically-curved band south of the center. There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional IR imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, however, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity is kept at 75 kt. Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid strengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity guidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs. The NHC forecast follows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the previous one. Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and by the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm. Rosa is moving westward or 270 degrees at 10 kt steered by the deep easterly flow around a subtropical ridge. Rosa will soon reach the southwestern edge of the high and will begin to move toward the northwest and northward as an eastward moving mid-level trough erodes the high to the north. Rosa should then turn toward the northeast ahead of the trough by the end of the forecast period. This is the solution provided by most of the track models which all turn the cyclone northward and then northeastward. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is in between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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