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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-10-25 16:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Microwave satellite imagery suggests that Seymour underwent an eyewall replacement during the night, with an AMSR-2 overpass at 0917 UTC showing a larger eye than seen on a Windsat overpass at 0120 UTC. The hurricane is looking better organized than 6 hours ago in infrared satellite imagery, with the eye gradually becoming more apparent and greater symmetry in the cold cloud tops around the eye. The latest satellite intensity estimates include 115 kt from TAFB, 102, kt from SAB, and 108 kt from the CIMSS satellite consensus. Based on these and current trends, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and over SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours. These conditions favor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast calls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today or early tonight. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid weakening. The majority of the guidance shows Seymour weakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours, degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating completely by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and continues to lie near the upper end of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is 275/12. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 24 hours or so. Subsequently, a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and northward into the break. Most of the track guidance suggests the forward motion should slow between 72-96 hours as Seymour shears apart, and this is reflected in the track forecast. The new forecast track is a little to the south of the previous track during the first 24 hours, and then is similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 19.5N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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