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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-10-27 10:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270837 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 Cool waters and strong southwesterly shear are causing Seymour to rapidly weaken this morning. The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. As a result of the degradation of the cloud pattern, subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are quickly decreasing, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt for this advisory. Seymour will be moving over SSTs below 25 degrees Celsius and into an area of vertical shear greater than 30 kt within 12 hours. These hostile conditions will cause a rapid decrease in wind speed during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Seymour is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday afternoon. The hurricane has turned north-northwestward, and is moving 335 degrees at 10 kt. Seymour is forecast to turn northward today, and then northeastward on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well offshore of the west coast of the United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered but has trended slightly faster this cycle. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.5N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 24.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 25.3N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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