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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-10-27 16:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271433 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 Seymour is rapidly weakening due to a combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, with recent microwave imagery showing the low-level center becoming exposed to the south of the remaining deep convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the last advisory, and it is possible this could be generous. Rapid weakening should continue, and Seymour is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today, become a remnant low in 36 hours or less, and dissipate completely between 48-72 hours. The initial motion is 335/10. Seymour is forecast to turn northward later today, and then north-northeastward tonight or on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well offshore of the west coast of the United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new forecast track, which lies near the center of the guidance envelope, is an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.2N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.3N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.6N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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