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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-10-25 04:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250236 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 After rapidly intensifying during the past 30 hours, the rate of strengthening has slowed for the time being. The eye of Seymour has become cloud-filled on geostationary satellite images and microwave data indicate that the northwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded some. The observed arrested development this evening is likely due to the entrainment of dry air. However, there are already some signs that the hurricane is recovering from these effects with central convection increasing and becoming more circular during the past couple of hours. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt, slightly above the Dvorak estimates at 0000 UTC due to the improvement in organization of the system since that time. Since Seymour is expected to remain in low wind shear conditions, over warm water, and in an environment of good upper-level divergence during the next 24 hours, significant strengthening is anticipated. After that time, however, an increase in southwesterly shear should end the strengthening process. Seymour is forecast to rapidly weaken when it moves over cooler water and into hostile atmospheric conditions beginning in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the multi-model consensus, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. Seymour is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 14 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system during the next 36 to 48 hours, which should allow Seymour to maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system is expected to move eastward toward California and erode the ridge. This pattern change should cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward in 3 to 4 days. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind field of Seymour is very compact, with tropical-storm-force winds extending no more than 60 n mi from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.5N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.4N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.4N 121.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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