je.st
news
Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-02 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 103 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved banding features. The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next few days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN. The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace, and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping in from the northwest. This change in steering currents should result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days. In the latter part of the forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
sergio
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||