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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-03 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 262 WTPZ41 KNHC 031432 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops. The upper-level outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong over the southern part of the circulation. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity estimate is 110 kt. Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly 29 deg C, with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for the next day or so. Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The NHC forecast is at the high end of the intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane throughout the entire forecast period. The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at about 305/9 kt. This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern California. As the trough moves away from the area, the global models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in a couple of days. This should result in a turn toward the west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond. The official track forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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