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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 33
2018-10-07 16:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of an annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded, nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical annular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward speed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of next week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast to move it closer to the model consensus. As long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow weakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling combined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs located west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster weakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of Sergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the first two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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