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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-10-07 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt. Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is practically already inside the eye of the hurricane. By Tuesday, one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S. should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly, although the various global models solutions have changed with this forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast. Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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