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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-10-08 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to 24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2 days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve northeastward with increasing forward speed. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond 3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4 days or so. The NHC forecast is not very different from the previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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