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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 39
2018-10-09 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090241 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye. This primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory. Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures. Beyond that period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce further weakening and at a faster rate. Toward the end of the week, Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days. At which time, the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States. Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt. Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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