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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-11-02 15:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this morning. The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features. Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70 kt, which makes the system a hurricane. Vance has fairly strong upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the circulation. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance in the short term. By 36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should halt any additional strengthening. Vance is expected to weaken rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4. This is similar to the previous official wind speed forecast. Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving northwestward, or 310/13 kt. Vance is expected to round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United States during the next couple of days. By late in the forecast period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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