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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-11-02 21:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Vance continues to gain strength. An eye has recently become apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner core of the hurricane is getting better organized. In addition, banding features are well established on the north and east sides of the circulation. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and high amounts of moisture. Since the hurricane is expected to remain in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast lies at the high end of the guidance during that time. Beyond 24 hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico. A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone. There has been an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes at around 1700 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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