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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-11-04 09:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040838 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 Satellite images indicate that the anticipated weakening of Vance has begun. The cloud pattern has become decidedly less circular and more ragged over the past several hours, and the overall coverage of deep convection is gradually decreasing. The current intensity is set at 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this may be generous given the most recent satellite presentation. More than 30 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear is currently affecting the hurricane, and this shear is forecast to increase to about 45-55 kt in 24 to 36 hours. Vertical cross sections from the latest GFS model forecast show that most of the tropical cyclone's circulation above 500 mb is removed within the next 24 hours, presumably due to the intense shear. These very hostile dynamical conditions should result in a rather rapid rate of weakening before the tropical cyclone nears the Mexican coast. The official intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS prediction. Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it reaches the coast, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction, it is prudent to have a tropical storm watch at this time. It is estimated that the low-level center is near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass, and the initial motion estimate of 025/11 kt is not much different from the previous package. Vance is expected to continue moving north-northeastward to the south and southeast of a mid-level trough over the next day or two. The official track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.4N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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