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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-11-04 15:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041439 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is losing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind shear. The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-level center is near the southern edge of the convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a bit generous. The initial motion is 025/11. The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida State Superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally northeastward and make landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36 hours. The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory. It cannot be ruled out that Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the low-level center moving slower toward the northeast than currently forecast. The large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance during the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm watch for portions of the coast of Mexico. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.3N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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