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Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-22 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222039 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Willa continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite imagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this afternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had begun. Subjective and objective data T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding some of the onboard equipment. The hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge. An approaching shortwave trough should turn Willa north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make landfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and Mazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening. There are still some model differences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these variations in forward speed. The rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since its formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall replacement has begun. Although the hurricane is forecast to remain in a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs through tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics of the eyewall replacement. Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Rapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of Willa are forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life- threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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