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Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-10-24 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240231 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Mazatlan. Willa made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt. The hurricane is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the initial intensity is set at 100 kt. Willa is forecast to move farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate. Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the northeast a little faster, about 15 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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