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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-06-15 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152035 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600 UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640 UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken and then dissipate shortly after landfall. ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate 355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching longwave trough to the west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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