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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-06-19 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast of Mexico. For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather amorphous-looking and disorganized. Based on the disheveled appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low pressure system with 20-kt winds. The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt. Steering currents are weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday. Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from regenerating into a tropical cyclone. Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low... please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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