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Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34
2014-09-19 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but tight swirl of low-level clouds. Since the cyclone has been absent any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time. A blend of the 1800 UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass. Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear. Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it merges with a front. Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward speed or 090/06. Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure during the next 24 hours. The track should then bend southeastward and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 39.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman
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