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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-02 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020858 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Elida has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 12 hours, and there currently isn't even a thunderstorm within 250 nmi of the center. Therefore, Elida is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on a 02/0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, which indicated that 26-kt winds existed in the southern quadrant. The remnant low is drifting east-southeastward to southeastward at around 2 kt. The low is expected to meander offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today before turning westward on Thursday, and continue moving in that direction until it dissipates in a couple of days. Although the ocean is very warm and the atmosphere is quite moist, hostile northwesterly vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is expected to prevent regeneration into a tropical cyclone. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.9N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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