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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about 12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than 75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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