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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-09-04 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042055 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Satellite images continue to show that practically all of the deep convection continues to occur well to the north and northeast of the low-level center of the cyclone. This indicates that Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 60 kt based on continuity from the previous aircraft data. Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The intensity trends shown by the global models suggest that a weakening trend should begin in 24 hours or so, and this is reflected in the latest official forecast. Visible satellite images show that the center has continued to track farther east than previous estimates, and the motion is a rather uncertain 070/4 kt. A shortwave trough is approaching Hermine from the west, and the associated vorticity is predicted to move just to the south of the post-tropical cyclone within the next day or so. This should cause Hermine to turn toward the north and northwest while moving rather slowly over the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Hermine should begin to move east-northeastward within the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former model much farther east than the latter one. The forecast for Hermine has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the NHC forecast track has been shifted eastward today, there is still a threat of tropical storm conditions, coastal flooding and large waves along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 37.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/0600Z 37.9N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/1800Z 38.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/0600Z 39.1N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/1800Z 39.6N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/1800Z 40.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/1800Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
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