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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-09-05 04:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050257 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with all of the deep convection located well north of the center. Deep convection associated with the system has increased over the northern and northwestern portions of the circulation this evening, but it does not appear that there has been an increase in wind speed. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with recent SFMR wind observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft has also recently reported a minimum pressure of 997 mb. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but the global models indicate that weakening should begin by late Monday. Continued weakening is expected during the remainder of the forecast period, and both the ECMWF and GFS dissipate the cyclone by day 5, and this is now reflected in the official forecast. Hermine has continued to move eastward since the previous advisory, but the most recent fix from the aircraft suggests that the eastward motion may be ending. A shortwave trough moving off the coast of North Carolina should cause Hermine to turn northwestward later tonight, then a slow north-northwestward or northward motion should continue into Tuesday. After that time, the cyclone should turn northeastward around the western portion of the mid- to upper-level ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The NHC forecast track is once again a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, but has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more eastward initial position. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft and a recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 37.2N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1200Z 37.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/0000Z 38.7N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/1200Z 39.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/0000Z 39.8N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0000Z 40.6N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/0000Z 42.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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