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Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-30 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 380 WTNT41 KNHC 300246 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 Julian has been showing signs of a transition into an extratropical cyclone over the past several hours. The deep convection has become detached to the northeast from the low-level center and cloud tops of that convection are warming. A line of convection to the south of the center resembles a frontal boundary, with recent scatterometer data showing a notable wind shift along that line. Based on the structural changes noted above, as well as a majority of FSU phase-space diagrams from the various global models, Julian is estimated to have transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT data showed the cyclone's intensity remains 50 kt. The cyclone is forecast to maintain this intensity through Monday before weakening. It is then forecast to dissipate in a few days over the northern Atlantic. The system should continue to move quickly northeastward through Monday, then turn northward and northwestward Monday night into Tuesday. This is the last advisory on Julian by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 38.1N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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