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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Forecast Discussion Number 59
2017-09-30 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Active deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased this morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and SSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to redevelop. Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late arriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp wind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the northeast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal characteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as extratropical, and this is the last advisory. The earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 45 kt. Maria has continued to move quickly toward the east-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs within a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48 hours. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 42.0N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 43.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 48.9N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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