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Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-10-28 15:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281440 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to 35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with Pablo. The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed. Additional information on this system can be found in: High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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