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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 44
2020-09-23 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230236 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday, and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has also waned. Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Recent ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt winds so the initial intensity is held at that value. The post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind shear. This should result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the system becomes vertically shallow. The remnant low is expected to turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 34.8N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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