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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 45
2020-09-23 17:09:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231436 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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