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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-29 21:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292037 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta lost tropical characteristics and was declared post-tropical a few hours ago. The surface pressure field has become elongated with the center now embedded within a frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic states. The maximum sustained winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, based on an observation received from northeastern North Carolina a few hours ago, and winds have been increasing at marine sites located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Zeta is zooming toward the east-northeast (060/48 kt), and its center is just about to move off the Delmarva Peninsula over the western Atlantic waters. This motion should continue for the next day or so since Zeta is embedded within fast westerly flow ahead of a strong mid-level trough. Some baroclinic re-intensification is expected over the next day or so while Zeta moves farther out over the western Atlantic, and the 12-hour forecast intensity is based on the GFS and ECMWF global models. Zeta's center is expected to dissipate within the frontal zone by 24 hours, with another strong low pressure area likely to develop and move toward the north Atlantic over the next several days. The forecast wind radii are based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory issued on Zeta. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong wind gusts are still possible over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours. 2. Through this evening, the last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta is expected over the Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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