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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-09-16 01:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 225 WTNT33 KNHC 152340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ERRATICALLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.8W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and the vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-16 01:11:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 152311 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-15 22:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 152058 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep convection over and around the center, it is becoming more likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time with an initial intensity of 40 kt. There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics