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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-30 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302036 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Satellite images indicate that the convection pattern of the system is becoming better organized, with a large curved band in the southern semicircle. ASCAT data from earlier indicated peak winds of 33 kt, and since the pass caught less than half of the circulation, it is assumed higher winds were not sampled. Thus the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. However, the low still does not have a well-defined center, with the elongated circulation containing several low-level swirls, so it will stay a potential tropical cyclone. Slow strengthening is considered most likely due to the poor initial organization. If the circulation consolidates, the upper-level winds and water temperatures are still conducive to strengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, just a bit above the model consensus. In a couple of days, the cyclone should weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters west of the Baja peninsula. A long-term motion of the system is 345/6. The disturbance should move on this general course around a weak ridge over central Mexico, before taking a more westward turn as it runs into a ridge over the southwestern United States. Models are in fairly good agreement on the cyclone moving very close to Baja California Sur from 36 hours to 96 hours, although again there has been a small eastward trend in the guidance. Thus, the official forecast is shifted to the east as well. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the forecast. Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center and there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this official track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty. It is also important to note that very heavy rain is falling over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur, which is already causing threatening flash floods and mudslides. Regardless of exactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this should be a significant hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 20.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 31/1800Z 22.0N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 23.1N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.3N 110.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/1800Z 28.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 29.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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