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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-28 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281451 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E. Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and the system should weaken. The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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