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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-28 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282041 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continue to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing center. Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast. However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in weakening. The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However, a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact, this is the solution of this morning's GFS. Regardless of development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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