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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-28 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281451 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 The disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet, and it still consists of a sharp trough extending from northern Florida northeastward across the adjacent Atlantic. The area of minimum pressure appears to be located just east of the Georgia coast. Nearby observations suggest that the winds remain about 30 kt. The disturbance is moving over warm waters but the shear is quite strong for the system to develop significantly. On this basis, the NHC forecasts the disturbance to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm during the next 12 hour to 24 hours. Thereafter, the shear will increase considerably, and most likely the system will intensify as an extratropical cyclone. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will be moving over warm waters. It appears that the area of minimum pressure is moving toward the north-northeast at 8 kt, but this is highly uncertain since we do not have a center. This system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is schedule to be in the disturbance later today. The track and intensity forecast, primarily during the extratropical stage, is a blend of NHC forecast with the OPC guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.4N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 32.4N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 30/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 42.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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