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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-29 04:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290241 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Although the disturbance continues to produce a fairly large area of deep convection, this activity is far from the estimated center and the circulation remains poorly defined. Surface observations and radar data suggest that the circulation of the system is stretched from north-northeast to south-southwest, and the position used in this advisory is near the estimated minimum pressure location. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Since the system does not have a clear center, the initial motion is an uncertain 020/6 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight or early Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the system. The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline overnight and on Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas are likely tonight and on Tuesday even if the system does not become a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to become post-tropical in about 24 hours when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 to 120 h are based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 36.9N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 39.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z 43.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 48.5N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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