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Remnants of Kate Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-09-01 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012042 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Kate Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 Kate's structure this afternoon has deteriorated further. While occasional bursts of deep convection are still occuring to the south of a broad area of low-level cyclonic rotation, this activity lacks much organization. Recent visible satellite imagery also suggests that the low-level circulation is in the process of opening up into a trough, with little if any northerly cloud motions being observed to the west of the estimated center. In addition, I have been fortunate to receive some in-situ data from the NASA-DC8 aircraft that earlier preformed a research mission into Kate. Dropsonde data launched near the center indicated that the surface pressure was near 1012 mb, which is only a few millibars lower than the environmental ambient pressure. The dropsondes launched west of the center also failed to find any northerly surface winds. The combination of these data suggest that Kate's center is losing definition and no longer possesses a well-defined circulation. Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum sustained winds have also been lowered to 25-kt based on the surface winds from dropsonde data provided by the DC8 aircraft to the east of the center. The remnants of Kate have accelerated to the north-northwest today with the estimated motion at 340/13 kt, likely as the low-level vorticity maxima has become fully decoupled from the mid-level vortex located well to the south and east. This motion should continue until Kate completely fades away while embedded in the synoptic environment near a low-level subtropical ridge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 52.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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