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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-20 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 126 WTPZ44 KNHC 200832 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of California. The associated deep convection has taken on a more linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed surface circulation over the rough terrain. As such, the depression is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this system. Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish during the next 6-12 hours. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next couple of days. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains will also lead to a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. For information on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult statements from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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