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Remnants of Patty Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-11-04 15:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041439 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 17.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 16.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 4
2024-11-04 15:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-11-04 15:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 041438 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15(28) 1(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 24(41) 1(42) 1(43) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 2(25) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 6(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 11(35) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 22(38) 2(40) 1(41) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 21(46) 1(47) X(47) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 12(12) 55(67) 8(75) 1(76) X(76) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 29(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 42(43) 8(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 31(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) KINGSTON 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics