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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-05-28 22:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282043 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Satellite and NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Alberto is making landfall along the coast of the Florida panhandle near Laguna Beach with maximum winds estimated at 40 kt. The overall organization of the system has changed little throughout the day as bands of convection have continued to develop primarily over the northern portion of the circulation. Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft showed that the pressure continued to slowly rise and it was estimated to be 994 mb on the last fix just before 1700 UTC. Alberto should quickly weaken as the circulation moves inland this evening and the system should become a depression by late tonight or early Tuesday. Alberto has been moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move northward to north-northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic over the next couple of days. The system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system over Canada in 3 to 4 days. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario and only slight changes to the official forecast were required. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge remains possible along portions of the coast of the Florida panhandle through this evening. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning through this evening. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 30.3N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 32.0N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 37.0N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 40.1N 86.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 46.2N 82.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brown
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