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Tropical Depression BILL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-06-17 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 While radar data show that Bill is maintaining a good convective banding structure, surface observations indicate that the cyclone has weakened to a tropical depression over central Texas. The initial intensity is 30 kt, with these winds occurring in rainbands near and east of the center. The large-scale models suggest that only slow weakening will occur during the next 24-36 hours, and Bill is likely to remain a tropical cyclone until the center moves into eastern Oklahoma on Thursday. After that, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low, with the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States in about 96 hours. The initial motion is 360/11. Bill is expected to moved northward for the next 12-24 hours on the west side of the subtropical ridge. Subsequently, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the westerlies. The track model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track lies close to the model consensus. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. This is the last advisory on Bill issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 31.0N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 34.3N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z 36.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 38.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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