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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-15 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 505 WTPZ43 KNHC 150237 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track, Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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