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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 904 WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 26 kt. Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at 245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in agreement with the multi-model consensus. The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that convection has dissipated again near the center, without another resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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