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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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