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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-16 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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